The price development of all cryptocurrencies (except Bitcoin)
"The same procedure as every year, James!", or: first "to the moon", ...then into the cellar
Many ask the question: Will the Duinocoin be really valuable one day? A look at the usual price trend of (alt) coins and an assessment for the Duinocoin (DUCO).
When most people hear the term "crypto" and "coin", they immediately think of bitcoin and getting incredibly rich. If you get into any coin early enough, you can increase your "investment" tenfold or even a hundredfold in just a few years. But is that actually true?
To cut a long story short: The Duinocoin (DUCO) will almost certainly not manage to be really valuable at some point and make its miners rich. But fortunately, that is not the goal of the coin.
In order to be able to assess its development in terms of value, however, it is worth taking a look at the development of other coins - i.e. all "AltCoins" except Bitcoin.
The usual curve
Anyone who - like me - has been around since the beginnings of Bitcoin (2009) and has followed the development of some of today's almost 20,000 AltCoins in particular, will have recognised a recurring pattern:
- someone thinks up a new coin, announces it early and one day launches it (ICO, Initial Coin Offering) with much fanfare. Often the developers give themselves a few million coins at the beginning or mine for a few days before the coin goes public.
In forums, mailing lists or Discord, heated discussions arise about the sense and nonsense, future usage scenarios and design flaws of the coin. Most of the contributions are full of ignorance and should be ignored. The question is: Is the coin unique and is it useful for anything? The answer is almost always: No.
3 The coin is listed on an exchange and often shoots up at the beginning. If you mine a block very quickly, you can make money with it (I mined one of the first blocks of the unspeakable MAXcoin and immediately sold the coins for US$2.50 a piece(!). All-time high on the second day: US$2.7786, price now: $0.0044).
After the first enormously high price spike, the price falls into a bottomless pit and slowly nestles against the US$0 line. Apart from small price bounces, the coin becomes worth less and less. Those who have mined own a worthless coin. Those who have "invested", i.e. bought, have burnt their money.
This should describe almost 99% of the cryptocurrencies listed on CoinMarketCap. Then of course there are the exceptions, most notably Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), the amusing Dogecoin (DOGE) and perhaps a few dozen coins more. But we are not talking about all these coins here. Let's try a glimpse into the future of the Duinocoin (DUCO).
Counterexample: The DogeCoin (DOGE)
First of all, it is fundamentally true that every coin can rise in price if there is demand. The DogeCoin (DOGE) has shown this very well. The DOGE was supposed to be a fun coin - that's how many crypto enthusiasts saw it (me too!) and simply mined the DOGE for a while. I quickly accumulated a few hundred thousand coins, but they were worth next to nothing. Anyway, it was fun. At some point I sold (dumped) some DOGE, most of them suddenly disappeared with the exchanges like Cryptsy (wherever...). In an old wallet I recently found a few thousand DOGE.
Then Elon Musk tweeted on April 2, 2019:
The tweet from Elon Musk that sent Dogecoin through the roof ("to the moon!").
My remaining DOGE are now worth a few hundred euros, but I will keep them for nostalgic reasons. For me, the DOGE was and is about fun, not money!
Will the Duinocoin become valuable one day?
The Duinocoin is also a fun coin, but it is much more interesting than the DOGE, especially for young people or beginners in cyptography and programming. You can set up a miner for a few euros and mine DUCO.
The DOGE is based on Bitcoin technology and is thus quite mature technically and in terms of security. The Duinocoin, on the other hand, was programmed primarily with simplicity in mind, but cannot and does not want(!) to offer this level of security. A central hash chain instead of a decentralised blockchain, an insecure SHA1 algorithm, an online wallet and many other details could make the Duinocoin a more than easy exercise for professional hackers. The only thing is: why hack the Duinocoin? It is worth nothing. All the DUCOs mined so far together are not even worth US$5,000... and even if you owned them all - where would you sell them? None of the professional exchanges list the Duinocoin (nor will they in the foreseeable future because of its technology).
So the Duinocoin will - in all likelihood - never really be worth that MUCH. Like the DOGE, it may be considered "cool" and interest some tech enthusiasts - which could make it rise in value. The DOGE, however, is regularly pushed by Elon Musk, for example, and even the DOGE is currently hovering at a measly US$0.15 (all-time high on 07.05.2021: US$0.6848).
Back then, I wrote about a rosy future in the first German Bitcoin articles in Linux INTERN 01/2013 or the Android magazine by Data Becker (R.I.P.). Back then, the Bitcoin was at US$3 to US$20 - yes, you could once buy a Bitcoin for US$2. Everyone knows where we are today.
Where is the Duinocoin going to?
I still believe that the Duinocoin will increase in value to a certain extent. Not so much from within, but rather through supporters who want to hold a few of these unique coins and give a small reward to the developers and up-and-coming miners. To go out on a limb: if the price of the Duinocoin were to increase a hundredfold, we would be at around US$0.01, or one cent per DUCO. That would be roughly in the region of 5% of the value of a DOGE and thus quite high in my eyes.
At this rate (0.01 US$/DUCO) and with about 6 DUCO per day, an Arduino UNO would mine just under 22 US$ in a year (minus electricity costs). Far too little to be financially relevant, but enough to have some self-paying fun. Let's wait and see! I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
